War in Ukraine

[Uomo Senza Nome]

A number of fascinating events have occurred in the last two weeks.

Firstly the Russians have taken 110sqm of territory and there appears no way to stop them. They have marshaled 500,000 soldiers on the Ukraine and are advancing with human wave attacks.

Russians capture 110 square miles (msn.com) 

Zelinsky has officially withdrawn from the CIS Agreements.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-withdraws-multiple-cis-agreements-090300780.html

Russia disavowed these agreements as part of the cover for the invasion. 

This is a lot more passive aggressive than it appears. These agreements prohibited the Ukraine from having Nuclear Weapons. The implication is that they are no longer bound by them and therefore if they have and deploy nuclear weapons they are not bound by the agreements.

Things are getting desperate in the Ukraine and the use of nuclear weapons, even on their own soil would be insanely dangerous and would likely result in a crazy reaction by Russia. Use in Russia, that, might result in WWIII.

[EBuff75]

Ukraine's successful move into Russian territory near Kursk continues, but ever since their campaign started, one thing has been in the back of my mind:  Is it possible that this is just a feint to get Russia to reposition troops and potentially expose some of the territory they've taken in Ukraine to a Ukraine counterattack? 

This is something which has been nagging at me for the last few weeks.  It sounds like the "incursion" (as it's generally being called) is a fairly major operation and it's taken quite a bit of territory.  That would seem to rule out the possibility that it's a bluff that's meant to pull troops out of position.  But even though it might be improbable, that doesn't mean it's impossible.

Anyway, it makes me wonder...

[majorhavoc]

Zelensky was definitely hoping Russia would reposition troops that had been on the offensive in Urkraine.  Sources I've been following say that hasn't really happened.  Putin has instead diverted troops from within Russia itself.  Supposedly that includes some poorly trained conscripts that were told at the begining of their service they'd only be serving in support roles and would never see combat.  Now they're being thrown against elite, battle-hardened Ukranian troops.  An oh-so-very Soviet mindset that apparently is not going so well.  American made HIMARs and ATACMS missiles are also doing a bang up job of taking out bridges that Russia would need to mount an effective counter-attack.  Those and also the temporary pontoon bridges Russian has thrown up to replace them have been systematically targetted. 

I can see Ukraine definitely taking advantage to reverse the situation within their own country if/when invading Russian troops are pulled off the front lines.  But short/medium term I think a more likely strategy is to weaken Putin politically at home, where he has longed promised that his "special military operation" will have no impact on the day-to-day lives of ordinary Russians.  And increase Ukraine's bargaining position if a negotiated peace is ever seriously considered.  Maybe the idea is if Ukraine can't win back lost territory militarily, they can get it back by trading it for lands they've seized within Russia itself.

Well, that and simply embarrass the heck out of Putin for allowing his country to be invaded for the first time in 85 years.  The flow of body bags back to grieving Russian families probably isn't helping his domestic standing either.

Say what you will about the wisdom of Ukraine's incursion into Russia, they're sure doing a good job of ensuring Russia's military operation remains extra, extra "special". 

[NT2C]

The flow of body bags back to grieving Russian families probably isn't helping his domestic standing either.

What makes you think this is happening?  This is Russia we're talking about.  I postulate that the majority of those families will get nothing back.  Their loved one will simply vanish in the void or they will be told they are POWs in secret Ukranian "torture camps".

There have been thousands of Russians KIA but do you see much talk of funerals back home?  There have been a few, but nowhere near the numbers there should be.  This leads to my speculation that the Russian military is only letting a very few bodies go back, such as would be typical of the kinds of casualties a force that is "winning" a difficult fight might garner, not those that force that is getting its collective ass handed to it suffers.

[majorhavoc]

The flow of body bags back to grieving Russian families probably isn't helping his domestic standing either.

What makes you think this is happening?  This is Russia we're talking about.  I postulate that the majority of those families will get nothing back.  Their loved one will simply vanish in the void or they will be told they are POWs in secret Ukranian "torture camps".

There have been thousands of Russians KIA but do you see much talk of funerals back home?  There have been a few, but nowhere near the numbers there should be.  This leads to my speculation that the Russian military is only letting a very few bodies go back, such as would be typical of the kinds of casualties a force that is "winning" a difficult fight might garner, not those that force that is getting its collective ass handed to it suffers.

Perhaps it would have been more accurate to talk about how Vasily's mother is complaining that her son has suddenly stopped writing home.  And come to think of it, Zhenya across the street hasn't heard from her boy lately either.  

[DarkAxel]

...The flow of body bags back to grieving Russian families probably isn't helping his domestic standing either...

Most of the body bags aren't going to Moscow or St. Petersburg, they are going to settlements of Russia's ethnic minorities and Central Asian nations. And Moscow couldn't care less about them.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Zelensky was definitely hoping Russia would reposition troops that had been on the offensive in Urkraine.  Sources I've been following say that hasn't really happened.  Putin has instead diverted troops from within Russia itself.  Supposedly that includes some poorly trained conscripts that were told at the begining of their service they'd only be serving in support roles and would never see combat.  Now they're being thrown against elite, battle-hardened Ukranian troops.  An oh-so-very Soviet mindset that apparently is not going so well.  American made HIMARs and ATACMS missiles are also doing a bang up job of taking out bridges that Russia would need to mount an effective counter-attack.  Those and also the temporary pontoon bridges Russian has thrown up to replace them have been systematically targetted. 

I can see Ukraine definitely taking advantage to reverse the situation within their own country if/when invading Russian troops are pulled off the front lines.  But short/medium term I think a more likely strategy is to weaken Putin politically at home, where he has longed promised that his "special military operation" will have no impact on the day-to-day lives of ordinary Russians.  And increase Ukraine's bargaining position if a negotiated peace is ever seriously considered.  Maybe the idea is if Ukraine can't win back lost territory militarily, they can get it back by trading it for lands they've seized within Russia itself.

I think that the thrust into Kursk oblast, while maybe unsuccessful in diverting Russian troops from the front in Ukraine, may be far more successful, strategically.  Not only does it grab media attention in Russia (with some Russian pundits even suggesting that Russia should use nuclear weapons on its own territory!), it likely indicates to western supporters that Ukraine is putting their equipment to good use, and hopefully encourages more support.

Additionally, while it may not have forced a redeployment of Russian troops in Ukraine, it puts Ukraine in a better position to disrupt the resupply of those troops, and if they are able to hold enough ground, could lead to an encirclement of those Russian troops.

And, of course, it throws a massive wrench in the works for any plan Putin may have had to end this war with more territory.  Putin had previously offered conditions to end the war in Ukraine if Kyiv surrendered the entirety of four regions claimed by Moscow and abandons its bid to join NATO, but now Ukraine could theoretically offer a trade of territory, however unlikely Putin would be to accept.  

If Putin rejects such a trade, and loses ground in Ukraine, he may want to skip his tea. 

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

Zelensky was definitely hoping Russia would reposition troops that had been on the offensive in Urkraine.  Sources I've been following say that hasn't really happened.  Putin has instead diverted troops from within Russia itself.  Supposedly that includes some poorly trained conscripts that were told at the begining of their service they'd only be serving in support roles and would never see combat.  Now they're being thrown against elite, battle-hardened Ukranian troops.  An oh-so-very Soviet mindset that apparently is not going so well.  American made HIMARs and ATACMS missiles are also doing a bang up job of taking out bridges that Russia would need to mount an effective counter-attack.  Those and also the temporary pontoon bridges Russian has thrown up to replace them have been systematically targetted. 

I can see Ukraine definitely taking advantage to reverse the situation within their own country if/when invading Russian troops are pulled off the front lines.  But short/medium term I think a more likely strategy is to weaken Putin politically at home, where he has longed promised that his "special military operation" will have no impact on the day-to-day lives of ordinary Russians.  And increase Ukraine's bargaining position if a negotiated peace is ever seriously considered.  Maybe the idea is if Ukraine can't win back lost territory militarily, they can get it back by trading it for lands they've seized within Russia itself.

I think that the thrust into Kursk oblast, while maybe unsuccessful in diverting Russian troops from the front in Ukraine, may be far more successful, strategically.  Not only does it grab media attention in Russia (with some Russian pundits even suggesting that Russia should use nuclear weapons on its own territory!), it likely indicates to western supporters that Ukraine is putting their equipment to good use, and hopefully encourages more support.

Additionally, while it may not have forced a redeployment of Russian troops in Ukraine, it puts Ukraine in a better position to disrupt the resupply of those troops, and if they are able to hold enough ground, could lead to an encirclement of those Russian troops.

And, of course, it throws a massive wrench in the works for any plan Putin may have had to end this war with more territory.  Putin had previously offered conditions to end the war in Ukraine if Kyiv surrendered the entirety of four regions claimed by Moscow and abandons its bid to join NATO, but now Ukraine could theoretically offer a trade of territory, however unlikely Putin would be to accept. 

If Putin rejects such a trade, and loses ground in Ukraine, he may want to skip his tea. 

Or stay away from any windows lest he "accidentally" fall from one like so many of his comrades did a few years ago.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Russian windows are incredibly dangerous.

[majorhavoc]

Russian windows are incredibly dangerous.

And balconies. Russian balconies have a disturbing tendency to induce spontaneous suicidal ideation.

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

Russian windows are incredibly dangerous.

And balconies. Russian balconies have a disturbing tendency to induce spontaneous suicidal ideation.

Must be the lead paint and asbestos.

[EBuff75]

Russian windows are incredibly dangerous.

And balconies. Russian balconies have a disturbing tendency to induce spontaneous suicidal ideation.

Must be the lead paint and asbestos.

I think Russia uses polonium instead of lead in their paint.  That would explain why so many people seem to come down with polonium poisoning!

[12_Gauge_Chimp]

Russian windows are incredibly dangerous.

And balconies. Russian balconies have a disturbing tendency to induce spontaneous suicidal ideation.

Must be the lead paint and asbestos.

I think Russia uses polonium instead of lead in their paint.  That would explain why so many people seem to come down with polonium poisoning!

Right. I had forgotten about all the polonium Russia seems to have.

Makes more sense. They use the lead elsewhere.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Russian windows are incredibly dangerous.

And balconies. Russian balconies have a disturbing tendency to induce spontaneous suicidal ideation.

Contrary to Galileo's experiment, it turns out that a Russian bureaucrat falls faster than a sack of feathers. 

[majorhavoc]

Russian ballet dancer critical of Russian aggression in Ukraine "accidentally" falls to his death.

Add ballet dancers to the growing list of Russian citizens who should be extra wary of that country's extraordinarily dangerous balconies and windows.

In related news, Ukraine has begun firing US supplied long range missiles at legitimate military targets deep inside Russian territory because, you know, Russian has been doing the same thing to Ukraine since February, 2022.  Except that Russia doesn't concern itself with the "legitimate military target" part.

In response, Putin has expressed his outrage over this totally unwarranted, borderline-dick-move escalation of hostilities against the peace-loving Russian republic. And has signed orders to allow the use of nuclear weapons if countries dare defend themselves by using, ahem, US supplied long range missiles fired at legitimate military targets deep inside Russian territory.

Now, where the hell did I put those potassium iodine pills? 

[Mr. E. Monkey]

"If there is a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and in protecting our people we will certainly use all means to us - and I'm not bluffing."

--Vladimir Putin  
  
Oh, wait...that was in September of 2022...

Meanwhile, Russia's response to Ukraine's counter-invasion of Kursk has been...anything but nuclear.  Interestingly, this statement from Putin was around the same time that Russia suspended their participation in the New START treaty, and in the midst of a nuclear "modernization" plan.  Yet despite their "suspension" of New START, experts agree that Russia "appears to remain below the limits" of the treaty.   If the test of their nuclear-capable Sarmat ICBM in September of this year is any indicator, I suspect a good portion of their maintenance and modernization budget had previously been spent on a nice yacht, instead.

[Lambykins]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/undersea-cables-cut-europe-finland-germany-hint-russia-sabotage/
Any thoughts on why *they* would do this?
How would this achieve objectives in Ukraine?
Just wondering....

[MacWa77ace]

@Lambykins

"If I had a nickel for every time a Chinese ship was dragging its anchor on the bottom of the Baltic Sea in the vicinity of important cables I would have two nickels, which isn't much, but it's weird that it happened twice," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said in a statement posted on social media.

And for a 10 cent investment there was a major infrastructure breech.  they got their money's worth. 

[DarkAxel]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/undersea-cables-cut-europe-finland-germany-hint-russia-sabotage/
Any thoughts on why *they* would do this?
How would this achieve objectives in Ukraine?
Just wondering....

Could be part of the cloak-and-dagger warfare going on against NATO countries supporting Ukraine.

I do know Putin is pissed that Finland joined NATO. Finland had kinda been in the Soviet/Russian sphere of influence up until then. Now he's got a huge land border with a NATO country, which was exactly what he was trying to prevent by invading Ukraine.

[Raptor]

@Lambykins

"If I had a nickel for every time a Chinese ship was dragging its anchor on the bottom of the Baltic Sea in the vicinity of important cables I would have two nickels, which isn't much, but it's weird that it happened twice," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said in a statement posted on social media.

And for a 10 cent investment there was a major infrastructure breech.  they got their money's worth. 

Let me mention that the location of these cables are very well known. They are on every chart with a notice to mariners. They show up as a warning zone on marine gps chartplotters.

A commercial ship does not anchor in those areas especially since they are generally located well away from areas suitable for anchoring.