Hurricane Milton

[KentuckyCarbine]

According to the NHC, maximum sustained winds within Milton could increase to 155 mph, which is only 2 mph shy of Category 5 strength.

[majorhavoc]

Now a full blown Cat 5 monster with sustained winds of 165mph.  Tampa/St Petersburg are directly in its crosshairs, at least for now. Reporting available to me suggests it'll remain at hurricane strength all the way across the breadth of Florida. Sincerely hoping it gives North Carolina a wide berth.

[Optimist]

I'm worried about this one. I have an aunt and uncle in the Tampa/St Pete area and my 90 year old grandmother is staying with them. They are able to work remotely and have an RV so usually whenever a major hurricane is coming they just leave well in advance, but with so much damage from Helene I'm not sure if there is anywhere good for them to go.

I thought it was weird that they didn't leave for Helene, but it was probably for the best as they only lost power for a few days where they could have easily evacuated to somewhere things were worse.

[NT2C]

As deadly as this one is building up to be, it's really hard to fear a storm named Milton.  Maddox, I could fear. Maximo, I could sweat.  Malek, I could dread.  Milton is like a Jerry Lewis character.

[MacWa77ace]

I'm worried about this one. I have an aunt and uncle in the Tampa/St Pete area and my 90 year old grandmother is staying with them. They are able to work remotely and have an RV so usually whenever a major hurricane is coming they just leave well in advance, but with so much damage from Helene I'm not sure if there is anywhere good for them to go.

I thought it was weird that they didn't leave for Helene, but it was probably for the best as they only lost power for a few days where they could have easily evacuated to somewhere things were worse.

IME you end up evacuating into the actual path of the storm when you think your escaping the predicted path, so as a Floridian not in a mandatory evacuation zone, [coastal storm surge areas] I hunker down, shore up, and then decide after the storm passes if we need to move to BOL1 or BOL2.

My wife has thrice evacuated from where the predicted path of the storm was going, to only move to where it actually hit. One time spending the duration on the turnpike in her car. 

YMMV.

As deadly as this one is building up to be, it's really hard to fear a storm named Milton.  Maddox, I could fear. Maximo, I could sweat.  Malek, I could dread.  Milton is like a Jerry Lewis character.

Now when I hear the name Milton I picture this guy.

[EBuff75]

We have a pair of our local CERT members who moved to Bradenton, FL a couple of years ago, which is right about dead-center for the current projected track.  They were here in Michigan this past week and just went back home to prep for the hurricane.  They're both in the local CERT down there and try to help the neighbors get ready whenever storms are coming in.  That was one of the big reasons that they decided to go back.

They're in a brand-new subdivision (rated for 150mph wind) and it's outside of the evacuation zones (it's even outside of 'Zone E' which is 33ft inundation) but that's still a big risk.  Even if they don't get storm surge, there's still the wind / debris and potential flooding due to rain to contend with.  Plus any impact to the infrastructure and businesses afterwards.  They'd probably have been better off extending their stay here with their family / friends, rather than going back down and taking a hurricane right to the face, but that's what they wanted to do! 

[Rednex]

New here said about it being a 5 when it makes landfall it will be a 4 or real strong 3. They said there is concern over all the debri and trash still left from Helen that ain't been cleared up yet.

[airballrad]

I'm sitting tight for this one too. It could be a mess. At the moment my biggest concern is the my in-laws, who live right on the water, are evacuating to my house. 

[Anianna]

New here said about it being a 5 when it makes landfall it will be a 4 or real strong 3. They said there is concern over all the debri and trash still left from Helen that ain't been cleared up yet.

My news reported they have crews working until the last minute to clean up as much as possible and are forcing the landfills to remain open to receive loads.  It was so much, though, I can't imagine enough of it will be removed in time.  People were still cleaning up and the streets were lined with furniture and appliances and general stuff destroyed just days ago.

[aikorob]

New here said about it being a 5 when it makes landfall it will be a 4 or real strong 3. They said there is concern over all the debri and trash still left from Helen that ain't been cleared up yet.

My news reported they have crews working until the last minute to clean up as much as possible and are forcing the landfills to remain open to receive loads.  It was so much, though, I can't imagine enough of it will be removed in time.  People were still cleaning up and the streets were lined with furniture and appliances and general stuff destroyed just days ago.

I believe that was one of the reasons Desantis made a big deal about cutting locks on landfill gates

[KentuckyCarbine]

Here is the most recent track that I have seen which shows it moving slightly southward ...

[majorhavoc]

1300 gas stations are completely dry. At this point further evacuation is nearly impossible anyway. Unless you happen to have a personal helicopter. I'm familiar with the Sarasota/Bradenton area and all major roads essentially become parking lots starting at least 24 hrs ahead of a major storm. I assume it's just as bad, if not worse, for the Tampa/St Petersburg area.

Watching this unfold is heartbreaking.  It also reminds me of the importance of never letting your vehicle's gas tank get below half full. And to top it off at the first hint of a crisis.

[MacWa77ace]

@majorhavoc or a horse

[airballrad]

Interestingly enough, Google Maps data shows things pretty clear on the major arteries. This has been pretty solid data over the last few days, so there is probably time for anyone who wants to make a run.

I'm familiar with the Sarasota/Bradenton area and all major roads essentially become parking lots starting at least 24 hrs ahead of a major storm. I assume it's just as bad, if not worse, for the Tampa/St Petersburg area.

[airballrad]

For those who want a live eye on Milton near landfall, there is a battery powered camera updating through the cellular network. It should stay up as long as the network does, or until it is inundated by storm surge. This area was hit hard by Helene, and surge here is forecasted to be as high as 15'.

https://hazcams.com/station/hazcams-mobile-005

[airballrad]

This is the Evacuation Zones map for Sarasota County. Zones A, B, and C are currently under evacuation orders. I have never seen this for more than A in the 8+ years we have been here. Most locals I know can't remember this level of order either. These zones are primarily for flooding caused by storm surge, and that is predicted to be really bad.

https://sarco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/lookup/index.html?appid=0219841617274028b5bf5867fcf4c57b

[majorhavoc]

That sure wasn't my and my parents' experience when they lived there. And the one constant visiting them over the course of 30 years is the volume of traffic steadily got worse year over year.

But for the sake of any tardy evacuees, I sincerely hope that traffic info is accurate.

[MacWa77ace]

@airballrad do you have the FL SARNET all programmed in your HAM's?

https://sarnetfl.org/uploads/6/1/7/0/61701057/20230910_sarnet_map.pdf

TX frequency is repeater talk-out. All UHF repeaters have a +5MHz offset for the talk-in repeater receiver

[airballrad]

When this thing hit Cat 5 the other day, people started running. The ones that live near the coast especially, which is the area in the greatest danger. The gridlock was there on Sunday/Monday, and has been decreasing since.

That sure wasn't my and my parents' experience when they lived there. And the one constant visiting them over the course of 30 years is the volume of traffic steadily got worse year over year.

But for the sake of any tardy evacuees, I sincerely hope that traffic info is accurate.

[airballrad]

I am not (yet) a HAM, but I do have my GMRS radio monitoring the local 2M repeater. I also have devices that can use Verizon, AT&T, or T-Mobile networks, as well as satellite messaging if the mobile networks all go down. So not where I'd like to be, but I'm in OK shape.

@airballrad do you have the FL SARNET all programmed in your HAM's?