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Data points for SHTF

Started by Ghost, January 24, 2023, 09:18:18 AM

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Ghost

This has been a thought that has been gathering for me for a while:

While SHTF as we (likely) envision it hasn't happened, the parts that very well might make it up have, consider:

Riots and social unrest- riots of 2020, etc, you name it; look worldwide too. This gives a good indicator of the general public actions in a grid down scenario.

Likewise look at the aftermath of Katrina.

Contagion and supply chain- Covid exposed just how fragile and quickly the just in time delivery systems will break down. Now scale it to something that is 5-10% lethal in terms of numbers?

War- Ukraine and others; initially this gives us a view of what war would look like early on but as manufacturing grinds to a halt in SHTF? That long logistical tail that feeds the military becomes unsustainable or at least restricted severely. Think of the terms of a M1 tank. It's a incredible weapon that requires massive logistics to make it work. 

In SHTF the. military will contract if for no other reason then it's current level of functioning can't sustain itself in reduced economic output.

Fire- I think a lot of people discount just how much of a problem this would be. Fire service works because not everything is on fire at once. Cities and even towns will be burned beyond imagination. Even our bug out lairs; in SHTF fire becomes a "cheap" weapon. I say this as a former FF.

Sanitation- this is likely to kill far more people than anything else. No potable water or proper sanitation? Disease central- we've seen numerous boil water decrees all over the country. Imagine it's bigger.

Power outage- how's without saying it won't last long. Look at the Texas power outage a few years back along with the everyday power outages that happen. On a long enough timeline it's going to be a killer.

Natural disaster- take your pick from hurricanes to tsunamis to any other weather event. These happen somewhat regularly; certainly enough to gauge effects.

Likely there are more I'm not thinking of. Point in my ramblings is: while SHTF hasn't happened, the parts that will make it up have.


majorhavoc

Additional data points: massive displacements of populations around the globe due to aforementioned political and social unrest, climate disruptions and the fraglity of economic systems (for all the reasons Ghost has already mentioned).  

This all puts nations and their governments under stress.  Which leads to instability - political, economic, cultural or otherwise.  And when nations become unstable, bad things tend to happen.
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Blast

Add shortages of medicine and medical supplies, farming chemicals (fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides) and of course, fuel.
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Raptor

Electricity and internet....these 2 items go hand in hand for the 2 key infrastructure items. Loss of either or both on a widespread basis for 3 or more days will be very bad. Not quite the missing 3 meals advice in terms of anarchy but certainly close.
I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers.

As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

Ghost

Thanks gang but I'm thinking more of practical examples.

Case in point: famine; we all know about famine in Africa in the 1980s. Another would be state created famine of the USSR in the 1930s or China in the late 1950s.

For political unrest: Brazil right now.

Closest to SHTF would likely be the War in Kosovo in the late 90s and as recapped by Selco.

Point I'm making? We can make a reasonable approximation of what SHTF would look like; just need to increase it by about 1,000 times worse that the examples in all likelihood.

Raptor

Quote from: Ghost on January 25, 2023, 10:16:41 AMThanks gang but I'm thinking more of practical examples.

Closest to SHTF would likely be the War in Kosovo in the late 90s and as recapped by Selco.
Kosovo would be a good example but if that is what you are looking for then look no farther than Ukraine. That has a modern version of Kosovo and has a lot of lessons to learn. I have not seen too much written about coping with the day to day activity but I expect someone like Selco will recap it soon.
I will never claim to have all the answers. Depending upon the subject; I am also aware that I may not have all the questions much less the answers.

As a result I am always willing to listen to others and work with them to arrive at the right answers to the applicable questions.

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