Volcanic Hyper Eruption

[Zombie Havoc]

[NT2C]

I guess this means I have to get our bingo cards updated...

[Zombie Havoc]

Only a question of not if but when...You got a while on those bingo cards.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

A super eruption like the Yellowstone caldera, sure, maybe, but a hyper eruption like they depicted?  Far less likely, and even less survivable?  

Yellowstone is not overdue for an eruption. Volcanoes do not work in predictable ways and their eruptions do not follow predictable schedules. Even so, the math doesn't work out for the volcano to be "overdue" for an eruption. In terms of large explosions, Yellowstone has experienced three at 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago. This comes out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions. That being the case, there is still about 100,000 years to go, but this is based on the average of just two time intervals between the eruptions, which is meaningless.
Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time.
Although another catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone is possible, scientists are not convinced that one will ever happen. The rhyolite magma chamber beneath Yellowstone is only 5-15% molten (the rest is solidified but still hot), so it is unclear if there is even enough magma beneath the caldera to feed an eruption.
If Yellowstone does erupt again, it need not be a large eruption. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone was a lava flow that occurred 70,000 years ago.

Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption? When will Yellowstone erupt? | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)
 https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt


I'm not going to lose any sleep over this one.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

As far as predicting "the big one..."

At the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), an outpost run by the U.S. Geological Survey in conjunction with Yellowstone National Park and the University of Utah, a team of volcanologists continuously monitors the sleeping giant's tectonic activity. They listen to its rumblings (which are streamed online in real time) for clues as to what's brewing below the surface. Jacob Lowenstern, scientist-in-charge at YVO, told us what they're listening for and what they know so far about the next "big one."
"Earthquake swarms" (that is, series of quakes), ground deformation, and hydrothermal (steam) explosions can all signal impending volcanic activity, Lowenstern said. All three are common at Yellowstone — the area has a history of earthquake swarms and uplift/subsidence cycles and is practically always astir — but for now, they aren't intense enough to warrant concern about an impending volcanic eruption. [Read: How Hot Is Lava? ]

"It is clear from geological studies that the kind of activity we see at Yellowstone  has been occurring for a very long time, and that such activity does not imply that an eruption is coming anytime soon," Lowenstern wrote in an email. "Given that one hasn't happened at Yellowstone for 70,000 years, and given that we know there are lots of earthquake swarms and episodes of ground deformation, it is clear that it takes quite a bit to cause Yellowstone to erupt."
During the five years since the YVO team began posting monthly volcano alert levels, the level has stayed at "normal." That will change, Lowenstern explained, only if an intense swarm of more than 500 earthquakes, some with magnitudes greater than 4.5, is accompanied by either a rapid change in ground displacement — for example, a rise or fall in the Earth's crust of more than 2 inches (5 cm) in 30 days — or a large hydrothermal explosion.
Before upping the alert level, "in general, we'd need to see more going on than what we've seen, and we'd want to see deformation and earthquakes happening simultaneously and in some abundance," Lowenstern said. Even those warning signs wouldn't necessarily mean a massive eruption, the scientists are quick to note. [Read: Which U.S. Volcanoes Are Most Dangerous Right Now? ]
Seeing the future
Until the moment the YVO team sees signs that an eruption is months or weeks away, there is no trustworthy way to predict when one will occur. "Scientists are reasonably good at short-term forecasts of volcanic activity but cannot look long into the future," Lowenstern told Life's Little Mysteries.
Earth's tectonic plates are too complex for their future to be knowable. Thus, in lieu of predicting exactly when specific earthquakes and volcanic eruptions will happen, geologists "typically rely on probabilistic evaluations that are based on how often volcanoes have erupted in the past," Lowenstern explained.
"At Yellowstone," he continued, "activity is clearly episodic. There was a very long period of volcanic activity between 170,000 years ago until about 70,000 years ago. Many tens of lava flows erupted during that time, though none were nearly as explosive as the supereruptions that are so oft-discussed in the press. Since 70,000 years ago, there have been no volcanic eruptions at Yellowstone.  Nearly all geologists I know expect that Yellowstone will experience future volcanic eruptions, but we honestly cannot state when they will occur, nor do we know if there are any more supereruptions in Yellowstone's future.
"It could still be tens of thousands of years before the next eruption. Having said that, it is always possible that things could change... and that's why we keep a close watch," he wrote.

The Big One: When Will the Yellowstone Supervolcano Erupt? | Live Science
https://www.livescience.com/33330-yellowstone-caldera-supervolcano-eruption.html

"It is clear from geological studies that the kind of activity we see at Yellowstone  has been occurring for a very long time, and that such activity does not imply that an eruption is coming anytime soon," Lowenstern wrote in an email. "Given that one hasn't happened at Yellowstone for 70,000 years, and given that we know there are lots of earthquake swarms and episodes of ground deformation, it is clear that it takes quite a bit to cause Yellowstone to erupt."

I think we're more than likely safe to keep prepping for the regular disasters we're preparing for, and then maybe consider how to apply those preps to this, if you are concerned about it.

[NT2C]

Ah, but never say never.  The magma chamber may only be 5-15% molten but to me that just sounds like a cork.  As for any signs that a super eruption was about to happen, would we even recognize them as indicators, given that it's been a few hundred thousand years since the last?

I'm going to keep my tinfoil hat firmly in place, just in case.  It might make the corpse a wild museum exhibit a few thousand years later. 

[Mr. E. Monkey]

Ah, but never say never. 

Oh, for sure.  Anything is possible.  But with no known records of any hypervolcanic eruptions on Earth, I'm led to believe that a super caldera type eruption at Yellowstone is far, far more likely, and even that doesn't seem to be as likely as some would have us think.

As for any signs that a super eruption was about to happen, would we even recognize them as indicators, given that it's been a few hundred thousand years since the last?

It's not my field of expertise so I can't say with 100% certainty, but I expect the answer would be yes.  They seem to be able to identify signs of "regular" volcanic eruptions pretty well, and as the most significant difference between "regular" eruptions of various types and super or hyper eruptions is the scale, I think that it's probably safe to say that there would be some pretty solid indicators.  The pressure that such an eruption would require, alone, should be a giant red flag.

In one example of an "unexpected" eruption
In one example of an "unexpected" eruption, there were substantial indicators that were recognized as such for over a month in advance:

In February, about a month after Hamilton and Duhamel set up their base in the capital city of Reykjavik, a series of more than 50,000 earthquakes began on the Reykjanes peninsula, about 19 miles away. On March 3, there were strong signs of magma movement in the subsurface, meaning an eruption was imminent.

(Emphasis mine)

I'm not saying don't prep for it, I mean, some of us prep for zombies, for Pete's sake.  I'm just saying that I think that a super eruption, or especially a hyper eruption, catching us without any warning, is probably almost as likely as a zombie apocalypse. 

I'm going to keep my tinfoil hat firmly in place, just in case.  It might make the corpse a wild museum exhibit a few thousand years later.  

Were we not doing that anyway? 

That would certainly be interesting, even more so if you did a full body wrap, like a big baked potato.  Probably right up there with the guy at Vesuvius who misunderstood when they told him "beat it, the volcano is erupting!"

[Zombie Havoc]

A super eruption like the Yellowstone caldera, sure, maybe, but a hyper eruption like they depicted?  Far less likely, and even less survivable? 

Yellowstone is not overdue for an eruption. Volcanoes do not work in predictable ways and their eruptions do not follow predictable schedules. Even so, the math doesn't work out for the volcano to be "overdue" for an eruption. In terms of large explosions, Yellowstone has experienced three at 2.08, 1.3, and 0.631 million years ago. This comes out to an average of about 725,000 years between eruptions. That being the case, there is still about 100,000 years to go, but this is based on the average of just two time intervals between the eruptions, which is meaningless.
Most volcanic systems that have a supereruption do not have them multiple times. When supereruptions do occur more than once in a volcanic system, they are not evenly spaced in time.
Although another catastrophic eruption at Yellowstone is possible, scientists are not convinced that one will ever happen. The rhyolite magma chamber beneath Yellowstone is only 5-15% molten (the rest is solidified but still hot), so it is unclear if there is even enough magma beneath the caldera to feed an eruption.
If Yellowstone does erupt again, it need not be a large eruption. The most recent volcanic eruption at Yellowstone was a lava flow that occurred 70,000 years ago.

Is Yellowstone overdue for an eruption? When will Yellowstone erupt? | U.S. Geological Survey (usgs.gov)
 https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/yellowstone-overdue-eruption-when-will-yellowstone-erupt


I'm not going to lose any sleep over this one.

Well me either..That video was just a scenario a what if.

[Mr. E. Monkey]

It's a really interesting (frightening) what if, that's for sure.  A hyper eruption, blasting lava 50 miles into the sky, as they said, would be...just mind-blowing.  That's almost reaching the thermosphere.
That's almost reaching the thermosphere.  

Putting aside the direct impact that would have on life as we know it, global climate, etc., you've got secondary effects that could even include altering the earth's tilt and rotation.

In short: